Shaun Walker, the Moscow correspondent on The Guardian, has a new book out, entitled The Long Hangover: Putin’s New Russia and the Ghosts of the Past. It advances the thesis that … and this is where I run into a problem…
Analysis
Russia, Europe’s Scapegoat for All Seasons (Matthew Dal Santo)
Unlike the US and EU, Russia does not seek to remake the world in its image. That doesn’t stop the EU from blaming Russia for its own problems, writes Matthew Dal Santo.
Fred Weir: Russia’s media scene: not just a state affair
Despite Western preconceptions of a Soviet-like puppet media, the Russian news landscape is quite diverse, with outlets public and private, big and small. But government influence remains a critical concern.
Russian Hybrid Warfare and Other Dark Arts (Michael Kofman)
The Kennan Institute’s Michael Kofman writes, “Frederick the Great said centuries ago that “he who defends everything defends nothing.” We spend too much time chasing hybrid ghosts, confusing ourselves, and diffusing lines of effort.”
Jeffrey Edmonds: How America Could Accidentally Push Russia into a Nuclear War
America runs the risk of misunderstanding the context within which the Russian government would use its nuclear weapons.
Stephen F. Cohen: Far From Hurting Putin, US ‘Oligarch’ List Could Help
The Trump administration has admitted a new report about Russian oligarchs is based on a Forbes list. Stephen F. Cohen, professor emeritus at New York University and Princeton University, says the report could ultimately help Putin force wealthy Russians to bring their overseas money back home. Cohen also discusses Russia’s upcoming election.
Asymmetry in Syria and the Russian Drawdown (Paul Pillar)
The latest Russian move should not have been at all surprising. To the extent that it was, this is because of imputing to the Russians motives and thought processes that they do not exhibit, and neither do most other people. The announced withdrawal shows that Russian objectives in Syria were never unlimited or grandiose.
Lyle J. Goldstein: The Absurdity of the New ‘Great Game’ in Central Asia
Geopolitics are not a good rationale for continuing the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
There Is No Military Solution for Syria (Barbara Crossette)
Only close cooperation between the United States and Russia can end the “terrible tragedy” in Syria, says Lakhdar Brahimi, the highly respected international mediator in the Middle East for more than two decades.
Reuters: YouTube found no evidence of Russian interference in Brexit referendum
YouTube found no evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum, a senior executive told a British parliamentary committee inquiry into fake news.
Stephen F. Cohen: Russiagate or Intelgate?
Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian Studies and Politics at NYU and Princeton, and John Batchelor continue their (usually) weekly discussions of the new US-Russian Cold War. The publication of the Republican House Committee memo and reports of other documents increasingly suggest not only a “Russiagate” without Russia but also something darker: The “collusion” may not have been in the White House or the Kremlin.
Don’t isolate Russia in this climate of Cold War rhetoric – we must all work together (Mikhail Gorbachev)
If a global poll were taken today asking people whether the world is going in the right direction, the answer, I think, would be a resounding No. Five years after popular movements emerged throughout the Arab world, memories of the Arab Spring have a bitter taste. In Syria, war has raged for half a decade and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, scattering refugees across Europe.
Sharon Tennison: Another Assessment of Putin
Since Vladimir Putin became president of Russia in 2000, there has been a steady barrage of negative press and hostility from the West. With Putin up for reelection this year, Sharon Tennison tries to separate fact from fiction.
Don’t Fear the Russians (Anatol Lieven)
If you believe many of the commentators and policy makers in Washington, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is an expansionist on the march…
This alarmism is counterproductive and largely wrong.
Robert Merry: The Nunes Memo and the Death of American Journalism
In the wake of the Nunes memo’s release, there’s still much we don’t know about how federal officials went about getting approval for placing a U.S. citizen—and a presidential campaign—under surveillance, including what evidence was marshaled for that purpose.
Gordon Hahn: Political Science and Political Polarization through the Prism of the Ukrainian Crisis
Political analysis is becoming dangerously politicized, one-sided and biased.
Mary Dejevsky: What Lies Behind the UK’s Warnings About Russia?
If you had spent the past few weeks in the United Kingdom as a visitor from outer space, you could have been forgiven for thinking that Russian barbarians were at the gates.
DEBUNKING MYTHS (Paul Robinson)
In my final post of 2015, I said that I would try to focus more on good analysis of things Russian and less on bad. So here are links to three recent articles which go some way towards debunking some common myths about Russia, writes Paul Robinson.
Stephen F. Cohen: Trump claims memo vindicates him in Russia probe
From ABC radio, Australia: The Democrats say the release of the memo takes the cover-up of the campaign to a new and unacceptable low but Russia expert Stephen Cohen has hit back, accusing the Democrats of fanning baseless accusations of treason against the President.
PODCAST: Was Putin’s Syria Withdrawal Really a ‘Surprise’? (Stephen F. Cohen)
Nation Contributing Editor Stephen F. Cohen and John Batchelor continue their weekly discussions of the new US–Russian Cold War. (Previous installments are at TheNation.com) Cohen offers two explanations for why purported US. experts have been repeatedly surprised by what Putin does and does not do.
First, they do not read or listen to Putin. In this case, when Putin began the air campaign in Syria in the fall of 2015, he said it had two purposes—to bolster the crumbling Syrian army so it could fight terrorist groups on the ground and prevent the Islamic State from taking Damascus; and thereby to bring about peace negotiations among anti-terrorist forces—which he hoped to achieve in a few months. In short, mission, in Putin’s words, “generally accomplished,” though you would not know it from American media reports. Second, US policymakers and pundits seem to believe their own anti-Putin propaganda, which has so demonized him they cannot imagine he seeks anything other than military conquest and empire building, or concede any legitimate Russian national security interests in Syria.
Also as a result, they do not understand what Putin hopes to achieve: a de-militarization of the new Cold War. In particular, if the end of Russia’s Syria bombing campaign abets peace negotiations under way in Geneva, the diplomatic process could spread to Ukraine, another militarized conflict between Washington and Moscow, and in particular to the Minsk agreements, which the US–backed Kiev government has refused to implement.
Cohen points out that Putin’s decision to withdraw militarily from Syria, even though only partially, exposes him to political risks at home, where he is considerably less than an absolute dictator. Hardliners in the Russian political-security establishment—de facto allies of Washington’s war party—are already asking why he stalled the achieved Russian-Syrian military advantage instead of taking Aleppo, pressing on toward the Syrian–Turkish border, and inflicting more damage on ISIS? Why Putin would again seek compromise with the Obama Administration, which has repeatedly “betrayed” him, most recently in Libya and in Ukraine? And why, if Washington perceives the Syrian withdrawal as “weakness” on Putin’s part, it will not escalate its “aggression” in Ukraine? All this comes as Russia’s economic hardships have enabled his political opponents at home, the Communist Party in particular, to mount a new challenge to his leadership.
But, Cohen adds, the gravest threat to Putin’s clear preference for diplomacy over war may be less his domestic critics than the Obama administration, which seems not to have decided which it prefers.