Analysis

Early this month Edward Wong of the New York Times wrote a piece that deserves more attention than it’s gotten. It’s about the Biden administration’s grand unified mission statement—a statement that Biden himself hasn’t quite articulated but that does seem to be, increasingly, guiding his presidency.

And when I say grand unified mission statement, I mean grand unified mission statement.

A National Security Council official said Tuesday that sanctions on Russia have created an “opportunity” for U.S. arms makers to find new buyers.

The Ukraine war gives a boost to Russia’s long-planned pivot to the East.

U.S. attempts at isolation helped cement the very multipolar world Washington promised to prevent.

Congress is poised this week to approve an estimated $12 billion in new economic aid and military assistance to Ukraine. But don’t expect a lot of debate or even fanfare because it is being rolled into a stopgap measure to keep the entire federal government operating until December.

With Putin mired in the Ukraine war and facing unrest at home, it’s time the west tried to negotiate a way back from the brink.

 

A prudent regard for the tragic, unexpected turns history can take would urge leadership in Washington, Moscow, and Beijing to weigh carefully the trajectory they are on and how seriously they want to test moving in another direction.

Once upon a time there was a country called the Russian Empire, which was America’s friend since its birth in 1776 till 1917, when the Bolshevik coup in Russia brought communists to power.

A new report from Brown University’s Cost of War project, published on September 15, takes aim at the current escalation dynamics, and makes the critical  case for a far more cautious approach than envisioned by the U.S. bipartisan foreign policy consensus (aka ‘the Blob’).

The report, “Threat Inflation, Russian Military Weakness, and the Resulting Nuclear Paradox: Implications of the War in Ukraine for U.S. Military Spending,” counsels against an increase in U.S. and NATO defense spending as a response to Vladimir Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine.

Zelensky continues to order counterattacks to re-take territory as a means of demonstrating that Ukraine’s strategic position vis-à-vis Russia is not as hopeless as it seems.

In the wake of a stunning counteroffensive in which Ukrainian forces reclaimed over 1,000 miles of territory, Russia is uneasy. The country’s political talk shows, usually so deferential, have given the floor to more critical voices. Opponents of the war have weighed in — about 40 officials from municipal councils signed a petition requesting the president’s resignation — and previously loyal figures have begun to mutter about the regime’s failings. In a sign of general discontent, Alla Pugacheva, Russia’s most famous 20th-century pop star, has come out against the war. Six months of consensus has started to crack.

With news of possible annexation and potential use of nuclear weapons, Washington must put on the brakes and press for talks.

 

The Biden administration will soon release its National Security Strategy, which is being revised in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In his latest broadside in the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Meade takes aim at a body that most Americans have never heard of–the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO]— and its annual summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan [“The Clumsy Push to Disrupt the World Order”, WSJ, September 20].

Mead’s core message seems to be twofold: first, “the Eurasian power balance is shifting”, he argues—that is to say, China’s support for its friend and fellow charter SCO member, Russia is waning [to illustrate this he draws a head-scratching comparison between Presidents XI and Putin on the one hand and Hitler and Mussolini on the other.]  Second, he damns the SCO with faint praise, noting that with the addition of India and Pakistan “the organization has become more significant”; but proceeding then to suggest why the opposite is the case [“Russia, China and Iran seek a new global system but propose no positive agenda”] [Read more…] about ACURA ViewPoint: David C. Speedie: Good Neighbors? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

The Russo-German relationship is essential for shaping the broader environment that European states inhabit.

How the West Brought War to Ukraine is no apologia for the Russian president who, as Abelow writes, bears responsibility for the war. “Mr Putin,” writes Abelow, “is responsible. He started the war and with his military planners, is directing its conduct. He did not have to go to war.”

Yet a question former US officials like Michael McFaul should spend more time asking is one that Abelow raises: “Where would we be now had the United States acted differently?

In the early morning hours of Tuesday, September 13, Azerbaijan launched an aggressive military assault along the borders of the Armenian Republic.  Observers of politics in the post-Soviet space may be forgiven for thinking that the center of fighting was the disputed, Armenian-inhabited region of Nagorno-Karabakh (also known as Artsakh by Armenians).  In fact, however, the attack targeted several towns and villages within Armenia proper, notably Vardenis near Lake Sevan, Jermuk in the rocky Vayots Dzor province, and the leafy town of Goris in Syunik. [Read more…] about ACURA ViewPoint: Pietro Shakarian: How the Russians Read the Karabakh Quandary

A new report authored by Brown University’s Lyle Goldstein lays out the case for why the United States should not engage in threat inflation when it comes to Russia, or use Russia as an excuse to expand the military budget.

Even if it is conceded that the sanctions war is just, it does not follow that it is prudent. On the contrary, the consequences of the West’s course are manifestly inconsistent with the public good and entail the high risk of losing more than is gained.

ACURA founder Professor Stephen F. Cohen died 2 years ago this weekend and to mark the anniversary of his passing we are posting the following from a 2015 lecture Steve gave on the history of the conflict between Russia, Ukraine and the West.