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Analysis

Kelley Vlahos: Jake Sullivan: Trump not doing diplomacy right

RSMay 21, 2025

It is an inevitable right of passage in Washington: every outgoing administration’s senior officials have a chance to shake off the loss, find a golden sinecure, and then start crafting the narrative that they prefer, rather than the history that exists.

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VIDEO: Col. Douglas Macgregor: We Have No Leverage

DEEP DIVEMay 20, 2025

Doug Macgregor talks with the Deep Dive podcast on Trump’s delusions of leverage over Russia.

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AP: Trump says Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will begin immediately

APMay 20, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia and Ukraine will “immediately” begin ceasefire negotiations, President Donald Trump said Monday after separate calls with the leaders of both countries meant to spur progress toward ending the three-year war. The conversations did not appear to yield a major breakthrough.

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Ian Proud: Russia is in the driving seat

the peacemongerMay 20, 2025

Theodore Roosevelt said: “Speak softly but carry a large stick.” European leaders are doing the opposite yet offended when not invited to Russo-Ukraine negotiations. Instead, and from the side lines, Europeans have been insisting that Russia accepts ceasefire conditions that neither they nor the Americans have the political or the military means to impose. So, it’s no surprise that Russians continue patiently to insist on their own conditions, nor that Americans may be slowly coming round to Russia’s position. Yet European leaders are affronted. Why?

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ACURA ViewPoints: Thoughts on the Istanbul Talks

ACURA exclusive May 19, 2025

Several members of the ACURA Board shared their thoughts on the latest round of talks that took place between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Friday.

 ***

Looking back, this devastating and unnecessary calamity has been going on longer than it should have for over two years. It was clear then what the result would be: Tens of thousands of have died because of the failure of leaders to come together to work out the best solution available. Like the American Civil War, World War I, and the Korean and Vietnam Wars, countless people have died far past the point when the ultimate outcome was altogether clear.

—John Pepper is the former Chairman and CEO of The Procter & Gamble Company.  

What might be described as the “Track One-minus” direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, all two hours of them, have ended and the verdict is virtually unanimous: no real progress on key issues, especially that of territorial demands by Russia that Kyiv deem to be a non-starter.
To be sure, it was useful that officials of the combatants were sitting at the same table for the first time in over three years.  But the fact is that the proceedings showed from the beginning that Russia holds the upper hand in the conflict and its eventual resolution.  President Putin declined to take part, understandably so: a facet–face with Zelenskyy could well have made the Ukrainians White House confrontation with Trump and Vance look like a paragon of civility.  But what undermined expectations even more was a Russian delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Putin and a former Minister of Culture. Ukraine was represented by the ministers of Defense and Foreidy Affairs; equal clout  would have meant Foreign Minister Lavrov at the table.
Of course, President Trump was correct in saying that “Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together”.  This is correct for two reasons: first, this is a war between Russia and NATO fought on Ukrainian soil because of the catastrophic prospect for Russia of a NATO including Ukraine.  Second, as Mr. Putin has repeatedly said in the course of the war, negotiations to find peace in Ukraine must also address “root causes”, a 35-year litany of NATO hostility via expansion eastward to Russia’s borders and the placement of lethal weaponry, including nuclear, in those new NATO states.  Quite understandably, Russia’s existential concerns go beyond the war in Ukraine, and while its end is devoutly to be wished, it will not allay these concerns.
The White House has announced.that President Trump will speak by phone with Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy on Monday May 19. The next step should be a Trump-Putin face to face meeting.
-David C. Speedie was Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on U.S. Global Engagement at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York from 2007 to 2017.
Even though the talks in Istanbul ended after only two hours, any amount of time that  two sides spent engaging in diplomacy should be considered time well spent. The agreement on an exchange of POWs is a good sign. Better still are reports that the two sids have agreed in principle to further talks.

That the two sides are still far apart on a number of issues relating to the establishment of a ceasefire is neither surprising nor unexpected. What matters is that they keep at it. Meanwhile, it has been reported that Trump plans to speak by phone to Putin on May 19th.

The thing to bear in mind is that these things take time: It took Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho four and a half years to reach an agreement on ending the Vietnam war.

The two sides last met in Istanbul 3 years ago, and in the time that has passed, Russia’s paramount demand (no Ukraine in NATO) has not changed. Russia and Ukraine could have reached a deal then (and nearly did) but it was undermined by Washington and London. At no point in the intervening three years did the Biden administration attempt to jump start negotiations or encourage Kiev to cut a deal that would have saved countless lives. Indeed, since the first round of talks in Istanbul (March 2022)  perhaps a million people have perished.

—James W. Carden is editor of The Realist Review

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BREAKING: Trump to speak with Putin, Zelensky on Monday

politico May 17, 2025

President Donald Trump announced he’ll be speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin — and then with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shortly after — as he looks to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

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Hall Gardner: The Relevance of Cold Warrior Opposition to NATO Enlargement

TRRMay 16, 2025

Hall Gardner is emeritus professor of international politics at the American University of Paris. This is the first of a two-part series by Gardner on the project of NATO enlargement…

The critics of NATO enlargement were correct. NATO enlargement would provoke a dangerous Russian backlash, a new high-tech arms race, a Sino-Russian strategic partnership―plus a loss of Allied consensus that could undermine transatlantic trust.

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VIDEO: Book Talk: Russia’s World Order with Paul Robinson and Anatol Lieven

Qi May 15, 2025

The idea of “civilizationism” has become a key part both of the Russian establishment’s image of Russia and of Russia’s diplomatic and intellectual outreach to the “Global South”. It helps to explain why so many countries around the world have refused to join the West in imposing sanctions on Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Broadly speaking, civilizationism rejects the view that Western liberal capitalist democracy represents the “end of history” and a goal to which all countries should and indeed must aspire. Drawing on deep roots in history and philosophy (European and Asian as well as Russian), civilizationism argues for a plurality of civilizations, all of which have contributions to make to human development and world order.

To discuss these issues, Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute, was joined by Professor Paul Robinson, a leading expert on Russian thought and author of Russia’s World Order: How Civilizationism Explains the Conflict with the West, published in April 2025 by Cornell University Press.

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Anatol Lieven: Back to Istanbul! Key nodes for US-Russia-Ukraine talks

RSMay 15, 2025

Putin’s apparent rejection of Zelensky’s challenge to a face to face meeting is a disappointment, but not a crucial setback. It is very rare for real progress in peace talks to be made in meetings between leaders themselves, and the Russians have some reason to see this as a maneuver, or stunt, by Zelensky to gain Trump’s favor rather than a serious proposal.

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Samuel Charap and Sergei Radchenko: Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine

CFRMay 14, 2025

In Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump faces a crafty, experienced adversary who hopes to capitalize on the American president’s impatience with the war to coerce Ukraine into signing away what the Russians have failed to win by force on the battlefield.

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VIPS MEMO: Arms Control – Toward Lasting Peace

Ray McGovern et al May 14, 2025

The following Memorandum is presented as a brief review, based on experience, aiming to encourage well-informed discourse between the United States and Russia on the critical issue of arms control. The experience of the past half-century has taught us much. We suggest that arms control agreements between the U.S. and Russia need to be founded upon three basic principles: security, stability, and reciprocity.

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James W. Carden: Generalissimo Kagan

the realist review May 13, 2025

Kagan writes: Vladimir, STOP!” That Truth Social post by President Donald Trump put a fitting capstone on one of the least successful negotiations in recent memory.

As will become clear, it isn’t the fact that the negotiations were unsuccessful that rankles Kagan; it is the fact that there were any negotiations at all. There is no bigger sin in the eyes of Kagan and his fellow neocons than attempts to solve diplomatically what could otherwise be solved by bloodshed.

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Reuters: Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on

Reuters May 13, 2025

 Russia is undertaking a major factory expansion in remote Siberia to ramp up production of a powerful explosive used in artillery shells and other munitions in the war in Ukraine, a Reuters review of publicly available state documents and satellite imagery has found.
Moscow’s ability to muster more shells than Ukraine has played an important part in Russia’s battlefield successes during the conflict, which has mostly been fought with big guns and drones. However, Moscow has needed to import huge quantities of shells from North Korea, and its own munitions stockpiles are dwindling, according to the United States and Ukraine.
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AP: Russia’s Putin proposes direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15, ‘without preconditions’

APMay 12, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed restarting direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15, “without preconditions,” an offer that came in response to Ukraine and its allies urging Moscow to commit to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face additional sanctions.

with Ukraine.

Putin’s proposal came after leaders from four major European countries threatened to ratchet up pressure on Moscow if it does not accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that they offered on Saturday in a strong show of unity with Kyiv.

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VIDEO: Putin and Xi Take Aim at US-Led Order (Bloomberg News)

BBRG May 12, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held bilateral meetings in Moscow, emphasizing an alliance they claim will create a multipolar world order. Xi’s four-day trip to Moscow started on Wednesday and coincides with Russia’s 80th-anniversary commemorations of the end of World War II.

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Lord Robert Skidelsky: Russophobia—an Epidemic Disease?

the nation May 9, 2025

How justified have been the fears of Russian expansion and to what extent has Russophobia been used to justify rearmament programs? Russia in the 19th century was undoubtedly an autocracy, but it sought “weak neighbours” rather than conquest. The British and Americans saw the Cold War as an ideological battle between democracy and totalitarianism, whereas the Soviets, with the experience of two invasions from Germany, were mainly interested in establishing buffers in Eastern Europe against what Stalin believed would be an inevitable American-led assault.

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VIDEO: Ben of Ben & Jerry’s Exposes the Motives Behind War With Russia

TCNMay 9, 2025

Ben Cohen moved to Vermont in 1977 and co-founded the world’s most liberal ice cream company. You may think you disagree with him on everything. But take a second and hear him out on the Ukraine war.

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ACURA PANEL DISCUSSION: VE DAY, 80 Years After–with Anatol Lieven, Mary Dejevsky and Sevim Degdelen

ACURA May 8, 2025

To mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day, ACURA hosted a panel discussion featuring Anatol Lieven of The Quincy Institute in Washington, Mary Dejevsky, the foreign affairs columnist for the Independent newspaper in London, and Sevim Dağdelen, a former German MdB who joined the conversation from Berlin. The Nation’s Katrina vanden Heuvel welcomed the panel which was moderated by the journalist James W. Carden.

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VIDEO: Can Trump Make Peace in Ukraine? with Robert Wright & Anatol Lieven

Robert wright May 7, 2025

NonZero’s Robert Wright talks to ACURA member and Quincy Institute Eurasian Affairs Director Anatol Lieven. They tackle questions such as: Which side wants peace more?–and why hasn’t Trump used his leverage?

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Remembering Edward Lozansky

Martin sieff May 6, 2025

Professor Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow and founder of (among much else) of Russia House in Washington, who died in Washington on April 30 at the age 84.

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Additional Resources

  • ACURA is on Facebook, YouTube
  • Johnson’s Russia List 
  • OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine
  • Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
  • Reconsidering Russia
  • Russian and Eurasian Politics
  • Irrussianality
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