Bashar Assad’s surprise meeting with Vladimir Putin could signal that Russia ultimately seeks a political settlement after weeks of heavy airstrikes in Syria. But the terms of such an arrangement are uncertain, and questions remain about whether Moscow will seek the departure of its longtime ally or try for a power-sharing agreement.
Book Review: Ukraine in the Crossfire (Paul Robinson)
…it is important that Americans (and Europeans and Canadians) understand that there is guilt on many sides in Ukraine, that their own countries’ hands are far from clean, and that there is much more to the war in Donbass than ‘Russian aggression.’
Don’t Ally with Saudi Arabia against Russia
While the usual suspects flood the US media with ideas on how to confront Russian President Vladimir Putin over his audacious move in Syria, the European Parliament adopted a new resolution on October 8 on the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. The focus of the resolution was the case of Ali Mohammed Nimr. The Saudi authorities sentenced the 21-year-old Saudi citizen and nephew of a prominent Saudi Shia dissident cleric, to death by beheading to be followed by crucifixion.
On Attribution, Personal Attacks, and Conflicts of Interest (Jeffrey Carr)
If you want to claim that Russia or China or any other government is responsible for a cyber attack, show the proof…
Obama’s Dangerous “No War, No Peace” Strategy in Syria
President Obama is about to add another dismal chapter to his foreign policy record. He may believe that his administration’s “no war, no peace” response to Russia’s intervention in Syria will avoid subjecting the United States—or him—to the potential costs of making a choice between two unattractive alternatives. Unfortunately, this posture may well be the most dangerous approach of all for it conveys both weakness to U.S. allies and inflexibility to Moscow, thereby encouraging further assertiveness at America’s expense while allowing Syria’s civil war to rage and ISIL to gain ground.
PODCAST: Political Conflict Over Historical Monuments, From Charlottesville to Moscow (Stephen F. Cohen)
Having grown up in the Jim Crow South and later become a historian of the Soviet Stalinist and post-Stalinist eras, Cohen acknowledges his perceptions may have been influenced by his autobiography. He also acknowledges important differences between the black victims of American slavery and the more diverse victims of the Stalinist Terror. But, he argues, the historical and political consequences have been similar.
Rift in Obama administration over Putin
Interesting piece by Politico’s Michael Crowley on the dissension within the Obama administration between the Russia hawks and the President and his top advisors over Russia policy, notes Crowley “Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Syria is creating new rifts inside an exhausted and in some cases demoralized Obama national security team, where officials pushing for bolder action see the president as stubbornly unwilling to assume new risk as he nears his final year in office.”
RUSSIAN SPY AGENCY FOILS DOUBLE ISIS BOMB PLOT (NEWSWEEK)
Russian intelligence has thwarted a double suicide bomb plot in Moscow directed by the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), the country’s main spy agency said on Monday.
German Media Cries “Don’t Forget Abkhazia!”
Abkhazia is seen as a “de facto independent” quasi-state on the Black Sea, a puffer between Russia and Georgia. But what does that mean exactly? A journey into a region in the shadows of the new East-West conflict.
The Costs of Ignoring Russia (Dimitri K Simes)
Current mutual hostility threatens an explosive confrontation. [Note: this article is part of a symposium on U.S.-Russia relations included in the September-October 2017 issue of the National Interest]
Yes, Putin Does Have a Strategy in Syria
It appears that a significant portion of the Washington policy community is dismissing Russia’s Vladimir Putin either as merely a tactician, rather than a strategist, or as President Obama would have it, a fool who has injected his forces into a quagmire. Neither assertion reflects the reality that is Russia’s position in the Middle East today.
US must realize Russia will not soon, if ever, become a liberal democracy. (Thomas Graham)
The introduction of new sanctions by the United States on Russia has sent relations between the two countries to lows not seen since the end of the Cold War.
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: ACEWA Event in Washington, DC on Nov 4
The Crisis in US-Russia Relations, from Ukraine to Syria:
Is Congress Overlooking its Causes and Potential Solutions?
Hosted by Rep. John Conyers, Jr., Dean of the House of Representatives
Wednesday, November 4, 2015, 2pm
Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2237
Free & Open to the Public
The Ukrainian crises represents a low in U.S.-Russian relations not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union—and the recent Russian intervention in the Syrian Civil War is only making things worse. American and Russian jets flying bombing missions in close proximity to one another raises the possibility of a military accident between two nuclear-armed powers. As the New York Times warns, the complicated and shifting landscape of alliances leaves us “edging closer to an all-out proxy war between the United States and Russia.”
The majority of Americans never lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 or the darkest decades of the Cold War—they have led lives without the looming specter of nuclear war. But the areas of conflict between our nations are growing—the conflict in Ukraine, the expansion of NATO, Russia’s involvement in Syria, and other lesser issues are driving a new wedge between the U.S. and Russia.
While most would agree that conflict between the United States and Russia benefits no one, the likelihood of such conflict, as well as the serious consequences it could bring, is not being adequately discussed on Capitol Hill. In the interest of fostering more robust debate on U.S.-Russia relations, Rep. Conyers will convene an informal hearing featuring four eminent American experts on the subject. All four are members of the Board of the recently re-founded American Committee for East-West Accord (www.eastwestaccord.com) a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization whose purpose is to promote public discussion and debate about the state of U.S. and Russian relations.
Expert Panelists
- Jack F. Matlock, Jr., Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987-1991 under President Ronald Reagan and President Bush
- John Pepper, former Chairman and CEO of The Procter & Gamble Company, and former Chairman of Disney and of the Yale Corporation;
- Ellen Mickiewicz, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy and Political Science at Duke University; and
- Stephen F. Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies, History, and Politics at New York University and Princeton University
Don’t Expect Anti-Russian Ardor from Germany (Leonid Bershidsky)
Germans are looking for a rapprochement with Russia. One popular politician wants to ensure they get it.
Why a new Cold War can be avoided
All is not well in U.S.-Russia relations. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine—and its new airstrikes in Syria—have brought the two to lows not seen since the Cold War. Presidents Obama and Putin sniping at each other from the rostrum of the U.N. General Assembly only accentuated that divide.
But does this incipient enmity mean that a new Cold War is inevitable?
Trump Isn’t a Threat to Our Democracy. Hysteria Is. (NY Times Op-Ed)
Even if it were true that President Vladimir Putin of Russia is attempting an illiberal putsch, he is still far from achieving this goal. Paranoia alone explains why fear that the republic is in imminent danger has been the dominant response.
Putin might be right on Syria: The actual strategy behind his Middle East push — and why the New York Times keeps obscuring it
One sentence in a news report the other day on Russia’s assertive new campaign to subdue Islamic extremists in Syria simply will not leave my mind. It was written by Michael Gordon, the State Department correspondent at the government-supervised New York Times. American officials, Gordon reported, are “confident” that Moscow will fail as it tries to return some semblance of order to what is now the world’s most tragic nation. This failure would be a good thing, we are to understand.
Russia’s Communists Pursue a Red Revival (Stratfor)
Though it lacks opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s appeal with young voters, the Party will continue to position itself as an alternative for youths who want change, but not necessarily the reforms that Navalny champions.
DID KYIV SILENCE UKRAINE’S BIGGEST OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER? PART 2
In our last post we described how its critical, conservative view of the Euromaidan revolution, the new government’s reaction to the so-called Russian Spring and the conduct of the Donbas War earned it the Ukrainian newspaper Vesti the deep distrust of the authorities and the moniker “Mouthpiece of the Kremlin” among many Ukrainians. Here we will describe how the paper came under pressure from both the government and “activists” (re: radicals) over the past year and a half.
According to former editor-in-chief Igor Guzhva, in April 2014 the holding was approached by figures within the new government who proposed that Vesti hand over part of its shares, free of charge, as means to avoid conflict. This was refused, and in May began a series of investigations, searches and official denunciations of Vesti by high ranking officials.
Why Some U.S. Ex-Spies Don’t Buy the Russia Story (Bloomberg View)
Evidence that undermines the “election hack” narrative should get more attention.