Max Boot’s recent column, ‘Russia’s War against the West’ warrants comment. It was impassioned, closed-minded and capricious. For Boot, almost all the world’s problems seem to derive from Putin’s aggression. He juggles the facts alleging it was Russia that first attacked Georgia in 2008, but it was the exact opposite. Russia did not invade and annex Crimea in 2014. Twenty-six thousand Russian troops were legally in the capital city, Sevastopol, which is a Russian naval base. A referendum overwhelmingly supported the return of Crimea to Russia. It had been Russian traditionally; then in 1954, the communist leader, Nikita Khrushev, transferred it to Ukraine. Most of its citizens are ethnic Russians, hence the one-sided vote. Russia did not invade Ukraine as asserted. When the new Ukrainian government abolished Russian as one of the official languages, ethnic Russians in Eastern and southern Ukraine began to resist. A right-wing private Ukrainian army advanced to suppress the resistance. Russian troops infiltrated Ukraine to combat these forces. These events followed the overthrow of the legally elected President of Ukraine in a revolution was assisted by our country.
What stands behind these events? Almost entirely lost from view is President Clinton’s decision to expand NATO into Eastern Europe. This was done despite the warning of George Kennan and other thoughtful foreign policy experts that the results would be tragic. A new cold war was the result, advancing American troops, for the first time, right up to the Russian border. In 2008 we reaffirmed our intention to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. For Russia, this was inadmissible, as it would allow the United States to deploy nuclear-armed missiles on the Russian border. Some of us remember President Kennedy’s response to the Soviet placement of nuclear missiles in Cuba. Nuclear war was a near miss.
The situation in Ukraine is extremely complicated. I do not think that from Putin’s standpoint it makes sense to conquer and annex Ukraine, because that would bring American missiles to the border. I believe that Putin wishes to keep Ukraine as a buffer between Russia and the West.
A brief word about the clumsy effort by Russia to influence our election. Point one – it was stupid. Two – it is unlikely that it determined the outcome. Three – moral indignation on our part would be unsuitable. We have intervened in the politics other nations, and still do, far and wide. This was justified during the Cold War against communist Russia, but no longer. The attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal and his daughter by Russia was even more stupid, especially before the scheduled opening of the World Cup in Moscow (soccer) just three months from now. So stupid that we have to raise an eyebrow of doubt. The rush to punishment, even before a full-scale investigation, was hasty.
What are the likely consequences of our policies? Already in full-swing is a renewal of the nuclear arms race. Second, Russia will move closer to China. The further degradation of the Russian economy as a result of our sanctions may result in regime change. But not in the direction of democracy. Most likely an ultra-nationalist right-wing, perhaps even fascistic, government, replete with a conspiratorial mentality, will emerge.
Hysteria about Russia points to large gaps in our media, namely the advancing of just one side in the analysis of the origins and nature of the cold war. Let us hope for a calm exchange of opinion
–George Enteen is professor emeritus of Russian History at Penn State.