ACURA ViewPoints: Thoughts on the Istanbul Talks

Several members of the ACURA Board shared their thoughts on the latest round of talks that took place between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Friday.

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Looking back, this devastating and unnecessary calamity has been going on longer than it should have for over two years. It was clear then what the result would be: Tens of thousands of have died because of the failure of leaders to come together to work out the best solution available. Like the American Civil War, World War I, and the Korean and Vietnam Wars, countless people have died far past the point when the ultimate outcome was altogether clear.

—John Pepper is the former Chairman and CEO of The Procter & Gamble Company.  

What might be described as the “Track One-minus” direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, all two hours of them, have ended and the verdict is virtually unanimous: no real progress on key issues, especially that of territorial demands by Russia that Kyiv deem to be a non-starter.

To be sure, it was useful that officials of the combatants were sitting at the same table for the first time in over three years.  But the fact is that the proceedings showed from the beginning that Russia holds the upper hand in the conflict and its eventual resolution.  President Putin declined to take part, understandably so: a facet–face with Zelenskyy could well have made the Ukrainians White House confrontation with Trump and Vance look like a paragon of civility.  But what undermined expectations even more was a Russian delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Putin and a former Minister of Culture. Ukraine was represented by the ministers of Defense and Foreidy Affairs; equal clout  would have meant Foreign Minister Lavrov at the table.

Of course, President Trump was correct in saying that “Nothing is going to happen until Putin and I get together”.  This is correct for two reasons: first, this is a war between Russia and NATO fought on Ukrainian soil because of the catastrophic prospect for Russia of a NATO including Ukraine.  Second, as Mr. Putin has repeatedly said in the course of the war, negotiations to find peace in Ukraine must also address “root causes”, a 35-year litany of NATO hostility via expansion eastward to Russia’s borders and the placement of lethal weaponry, including nuclear, in those new NATO states.  Quite understandably, Russia’s existential concerns go beyond the war in Ukraine, and while its end is devoutly to be wished, it will not allay these concerns.

The White House has announced.that President Trump will speak by phone with Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy on Monday May 19. The next step should be a Trump-Putin face to face meeting.

That the two sides are still far apart on a number of issues relating to the establishment of a ceasefire is neither surprising nor unexpected. What matters is that they keep at it. Meanwhile, it has been reported that Trump plans to speak by phone to Putin on May 19th.

The thing to bear in mind is that these things take time: It took Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho four and a half years to reach an agreement on ending the Vietnam war.

The two sides last met in Istanbul 3 years ago, and in the time that has passed, Russia’s paramount demand (no Ukraine in NATO) has not changed. Russia and Ukraine could have reached a deal then (and nearly did) but it was undermined by Washington and London. At no point in the intervening three years did the Biden administration attempt to jump start negotiations or encourage Kiev to cut a deal that would have saved countless lives. Indeed, since the first round of talks in Istanbul (March 2022)  perhaps a million people have perished.

—James W. Carden is editor of The Realist Review